“On language”
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According to the United States, the New York Times reported on March 8, United States Pacific air forces Commander Admiral luoli·luobinxun said the same day, United States air force would continue to perform daily missions over the South China Sea. When asked to “us aircraft have been shot down by the Chinese, and how the United States will retaliate” when Robinson declined to answer.
Obviously, with China’s position on the South China Sea Defense and measures become increasingly clear, especially related to airport construction and accelerated military deployment action, already thinking of many in the South China Sea between China and the outside world “fortress island” over the “misfires” of risk. But reporters pointed questions, in fact in addition to Robinson, “declined”, it seems unlikely to have a more definitive answer.
“Revenge” cannot be said to
We believe that, as often intrusive, reaching other countries ‘ airspace, territorial sea “repeat offenders”, including the Pacific air command, United States Army military plans must have a status of emergency, the White House and the State Department, too. However, once announced the plan to bluff, you must make yourself into a passive at the diplomatic and military.
Theory see, depending on “aircraft was China shot down” of reality, beauty party of reaction nothing more than following several: a, and quickly rates of force revenge, in achieved limited of revenge target Hou, that through diplomatic and military deterrence means tube control situation not runaway; II, and not implementation force revenge, only in military deterrence support Xia imposed powerful of diplomatic pressure, to for other game chips; three, and using the burst event, in prepared full of premise Xia, on China Sea important military and strategy target implementation lightning type RAID, After destroying targets, then controlled the situation without sliding back into full-scale war.
Which kind of response, prior to the event for the outside world is uncertain. In the United States, and it is this uncertainty and to protect the smooth progress of the related acts of provocation.
For example, if Robinson made it clear that even the Americans will react according to the first model, China shot down before action will make full diplomatic and military preparations, us then limited retaliation will be hard to achieve their goals. Then do? Expand the war ended still throw in the towel?
If Robinson will open the second model will mean that American troops will not force the bottom line tells opponents of reprisals, according to the American perspective, can take up arms against impunity encouraged the Chinese intervention, and diplomatic negotiations due to the lack of a credible military deterrent, the United States also cannot catch any valuable chips.
Third mode exists only theoretically possible. American action would almost certainly lead to a full-scale war, any means of control in such situations is weak. For both total war to the present, both unbearable and unnecessary. This mode if it is publicly disclosed, apart from make yourself popular in diplomatic “militant”, “Sabre” blaming outside, the United States is not likely to be implemented, they simply won’t believe.
Shoot down warplanes of the era
Because of uncertainties in the response, more favorable to the US side in the South China Sea or other hotspots around China’s provocations. Beijing in the face of us more and more rude, more frequent and more and more hit the bottom line of provocations, must also be prepared for all the plans, its premise is timely and accurate judgment of American intentions and possible reactions.
Generally speaking, in between two established powers, Admiral Robinson was asked to extremes is hard to happen. Chinese and American air forces over the South China Sea more than once played before.
The cold war era, especially the late 60 ‘s the peak of the Vietnam war, American troops and drones have repeatedly over the South China Sea were shot down by the Chinese air force. However, the bilateral relationship and now is completely different, since the two countries ended the Korean war has in fact been in a diplomatic confrontation and military confrontation of “quasi war” State. US military plane was invaded not just so-called “contested airspace”, but often violated in China is universally recognized by international airspace, under such circumstances, China’s air force to shoot down American planes in international law no problem, because the two sides were already in a “belligerent” State, so shoot down behavior and no moral stain.
Today’s Sino-US relations despite conflict, but it is still subject to mutually agreed strategic cooperation partnership. Neither the armed confrontation, and no motive of waging war. In this case, at least in the high level on the subjective views of, I believe does not want to happen “to shoot down American warplanes” event.
“Soft block” and “hard block”
Shot down by air defense and interception is not the only way, in the face of United States air force came close reconnaissance, formed in accordance with the cold war, and later “conventional” international practice, the Chinese land, sea and air defense forces general measures that may be taken include: radar monitoring, radiation, radio warning, aircraft with flying, jamming routes, extrusion, warning aircraft gun firing, even collisions, and so on. These measures can be gradually upgraded to use, you can also choose to use.
We can see from a number of relevant cases, “soft block” means general enough to “invade” the aircraft off. Once a front-line State of the cold war, such as the US and Russia has extensive experience in these areas. Russian bombers and reconnaissance aircraft to Japan fly-around of the archipelago, the Alaskan North American air defence identification zone “invasion”, and NATO air defense identification zone in Beihai’s “provocative”, usually NATO or Japan fighter with flying, flying away from the airspace of the class, both sides generally live together peacefully, front-line pilots and ground commanders even regard each other as “old friends”. Shanghai boy million full scholarships admission
Once the “invasion” aircraft approaching or entering airspace, “soft block” tool will also upgrade. September 13, 1987 in Barents Sea occurred of Soviet anti-air force Su-27 “cutting” Norway air force P-3B anti-submarine machine event, simbal captain that used has extrusion, and collision, means, forced injured of P-3B fled; that same year December 9, a frame Soviet figure-16 bomber into Japan Okinawa near airspace, aviation self-defence team of F-4EJ two times launches tracer warning shooting, eventually forced away from Soviet bomber; on April 1, 2001 of sea hit machine event in the, In close to the monitor, the f-8 pilot Wang Wei collided with American EP-3, f-8 crash injured US military reconnaissance planes landing in Hainan Lingshui airport.
On the Defense side found under the invasion of the airspace, defenders can indeed choose to shoot down – although in international law generally do not do so. Where, in accordance with the Japanese side, in 1987 the Soviet Union alone had more than 20 military incursions into Japan’s airspace, but only once received a warning shot. If the rupture of diplomatic relations between the two countries has not, “hard block” will certainly pay a heavy diplomatic and moral costs had a significant negative impact in the international arena, often outweigh the gain.
Such of case not more, but are is famous: 1978 and 1983, big Han Aviation of Boeing 707 and Boeing 7,472 times into Soviet airspace, are was land anti-air force of Su-15 volley machine shot down; recently once similar event occurred in November 24, 2015, a frame suspected into Turkey airspace of Russian army Su-24 fighting bomber was Turkey F-16 shot down; and since Syria crisis outbreak Hou, Turkey and Syria are had to other into national airspace for by shot down had other fighter.
In above actual shot down case in the, Korea and allies no take any military revenge action (has rumors said 1987 shot down event Hou beauty Su had in Bering Sea Gorge outbreak mass air combat, but this a claims no any credible information confirmed); 2015 Russian military was shot down Hou, Moscow only take has indirect revenge action; soil Syria two frequently occurred of shot down event is not has typical meaning, actually Ankara and Damascus early in military confrontation State, Cases like China and the South China Sea the air war during the cold war.
Special challenges sea air
National air defense area of “soft against”, “ball” are both common in China at present, but also a very testing skills, significant challenges coping mechanisms and psychological game, after all, and coastal defence is different, changing much faster aircraft led air intelligence, are more difficult. Handled properly could not subdue the soldiers, improper handling or benefits were eroded, or “walking” into a positive impact. This case history provides us with many ready-made experience with international practices for reference.
In General, such as the US military did not directly enter China’s undisputed airspace or over sensitive military targets, shooting a low probability, “soft block” cures even entered the airspace–which is also a small probability event, shot down is not the preferred option.
In addition, we must also see the particularities of air defense struggle of South China Sea. Because China has not defined the South China Sea the air defense identification zone, resulting in the so-called “disputed airspace”, the people’s Liberation Army lacks any external clear safety rules. Beautiful machine if in this part of the airspace, then Beijing, according to its understanding of the reefs belonging naturally has the right to shoot down, and does not violate international law, but the United States and parts of the South China Sea issue surely do not think so. This is probably the biggest risk to control unexpected incidents occurred over the South China Sea.
(The author is a national strategic research center special researcher, Shanghai Jiaotong University)
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